Crisis Repricing
After analyzing the market reaction to the Iran war, one thing is clear: 70% of markets are pricing in a major geopolitical shock while the rest aren't. This disconnect can't persist indefinitely. It will resolve one way or the other.
I see five scenarios for how this plays out.
Scenario 1: Full Crisis Repricing (35%)
War escalates. US equities finally catch down to what Asian markets, energy, and bonds are already pricing.
S&P drops 15%+ to align with KOSPI/Nikkei selloffs. VIX spikes to 40-50+. Options dealers forced to hedge aggressively. The narrative shifts from "US exceptionalism" to "nobody is safe."
This is the base case because the current pricing makes no sense. Eventually, reality wins.
Scenario 2: Grinding Stagflation (25%)
War neither escalates nor fades. It just continues.
Oil stays elevated at $85-100 indefinitely. The S&P drifts lower slowly—down 5-8% over months, not days. The Fed is paralyzed between rising energy inflation and weakening growth. VIX stays stuck at 25-35 for months. Gold ranges between $4,800-5,400, unable to break out either direction.
This is the frustrating scenario where markets stay confused and volatility persists without resolution.
Scenario 3: War Fades (20%)
Ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough within 30-60 days.
Oil retreats below $75. KOSPI and Nikkei recover their losses. VIX fades back to 18. The S&P makes new highs. Gold stays flat or recovers slightly.
The market repricing reverses. Everyone who sold the shock looks wrong. US exceptionalism narrative gets validated retroactively.
I'm skeptical of this scenario because geopolitical conflicts rarely resolve this cleanly. But it's possible.
Scenario 4: Escalation Without Repricing (15%)
War escalates further—Iran counterattacks, Strait of Hormuz threatened, regional expansion—but the S&P still doesn't reprice.
US exceptionalism positioning holds. Tech stocks absorb everything. The narrative becomes "only US assets are safe" and money flows in despite worsening geopolitics.
This is the scenario where I'm completely wrong about market delusion. The divergence I called out in the last post just gets worse.
Scenario 5: Black Swan Escalation (5%)
Nuclear threat. China opportunistically moves on Taiwan. Saudi Arabia enters the conflict.
Complete regime change in risk pricing. Every correlation goes to 1. Everything sells simultaneously. Dollar spikes violently. Gold flushes hard initially, then becomes the only asset anyone trusts.
This is the tail risk scenario. Low probability, but you need to be aware it exists.
I'm tracking these levels daily to assess which scenario we're moving toward.
February 27, 2026
Day before war began - baseline
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $67.02 | — |
| TTF | $31.96 | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,878 | — |
| NI225 | 58,850 | — |
| VIX close | 19.85 | — |
| VIX high | 21.74 | — |
| VVIX | 110.89 | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.72 | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 97.723 | — |
| USDJPY | 156.066 | — |
| USDCHF | 0.76908 | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 3.949% | — |
| JP 10Y | 2.111% | — |
| DE 10Y | 2.644% | — |
| GB 10Y | 4.305% | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,247 | — |
| BTC | $65,929 | — |
Assessment: Baseline reading. Markets in normal regime before the shock.
February 28, 2026
Day 1 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $67,049 | +1.7% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend/limited trading.
March 1, 2026
Day 2 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $65,852 | −0.1% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend/limited trading.
March 2, 2026
Day 3 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $71.23 | +6.3% |
| TTF | $44.505 | +39.2% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,881 | +0.04% |
| NI225 | 58,057 | −1.3% |
| VIX close | 21.43 | +8.0% |
| VIX high | 25.24 | +16.1% |
| VVIX | 113.44 | +2.3% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.28 | −0.5% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.548 | +0.8% |
| USDJPY | 157.360 | +0.8% |
| USDCHF | 0.77942 | +1.3% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.036% | +8.7bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.065% | −4.6bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.719% | +7.5bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.377% | +7.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,311 | +1.2% |
| BTC | $68,947 | +4.6% |
Assessment: The divergence begins. TTF up 39%, WTI up 6%, but S&P barely moved (+0.04%). VIX climbing but not exploding. This is exactly the split I described in the last post—energy markets pricing war, equities ignoring it. Not yet clear which scenario we're in.
March 3, 2026
Day 4 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $74.56 | +11.2% |
| TTF | $54.290 | +69.9% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,710 | −2.4% |
| NI225 | 56,279 | −4.4% |
| VIX close | 23.56 | +18.7% |
| VIX high | 28.15 | +29.5% |
| VVIX | 116.02 | +4.6% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.12 | −0.7% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.071 | +1.4% |
| USDJPY | 157.694 | +1.0% |
| USDCHF | 0.78199 | +1.7% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.065% | +11.6bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.151% | +4.0bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.750% | +10.6bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.477% | +17.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,123 | −2.4% |
| BTC | $68,284 | +3.6% |
Assessment: TTF now up 70% from baseline. S&P finally cracks (-2.4%). Nikkei down 4.4%. VIX intraday high hits 28. The repricing is starting. This looks like early stage Scenario 1 (Full Crisis Repricing). Gold weakness is bizarre—down 2.4% during a war.
March 4, 2026
Day 5 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $74.66 | +11.4% |
| TTF | $48.765 | +52.6% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,869 | −0.1% |
| NI225 | 54,245 | −7.8% |
| VIX close | 21.14 | +6.5% |
| VIX high | 24.87 | +14.4% |
| VVIX | 106.94 | −3.6% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.40 | −0.4% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.775 | +1.1% |
| USDJPY | 157.054 | +0.6% |
| USDCHF | 0.77916 | +1.3% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.100% | +15.1bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.117% | +0.6bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.764% | +12.0bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.441% | +13.6bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,134 | −2.2% |
| BTC | $72,752 | +10.4% |
Assessment: Whipsaw. TTF pulls back sharply to +53%, S&P recovers almost all losses (-0.1% from baseline), VIX drops back to 21. Nikkei continues bleeding (-7.8%). This is confusing action. Either war fears fading (Scenario 3) or US equities refusing to reprice (Scenario 4). Too early to tell. BTC rally to $72k is strange.
March 5, 2026
Day 6 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $81.01 | +20.9% |
| TTF | $50.730 | +58.7% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,830 | −0.7% |
| NI225 | 55,271 | −6.1% |
| VIX close | 23.76 | +19.7% |
| VIX high | 25.84 | +18.9% |
| VVIX | 115.93 | +4.5% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.08 | −0.8% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.061 | +1.4% |
| USDJPY | 157.558 | +1.0% |
| USDCHF | 0.78103 | +1.6% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.140% | +19.1bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.146% | +3.5bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.837% | +19.3bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.545% | +24.0bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,078 | −3.2% |
| BTC | $70,807 | +7.4% |
Assessment: Oil spikes to +21%. S&P gives back gains (-0.7%). VIX back up. Credit (HYG) weakening. This feels like Scenario 2 (Grinding Stagflation) emerging—oil staying elevated, equities drifting lower, no clean resolution. Gold down 3.2% from baseline during a war is still incomprehensible to me.
March 6, 2026
Day 7 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $90.90 | +35.6% |
| TTF | $53.385 | +67.0% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,740 | −2.0% |
| NI225 | 55,620 | −5.5% |
| VIX close | 29.48 | +48.5% |
| VIX high | 29.93 | +37.7% |
| VVIX | 140.44 | +26.6% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.69 | −1.3% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.855 | +1.2% |
| USDJPY | 157.822 | +1.1% |
| USDCHF | 0.77598 | +0.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.138% | +18.9bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.170% | +5.9bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.864% | +22.0bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.641% | +33.6bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,158 | −1.7% |
| BTC | $68,170 | +3.4% |
Assessment: This is the data I analyzed in the last post. Oil +36%, TTF +67%, S&P -2%, VIX spikes to 29.48, VVIX at 140. Peak stress so far. Credit breaking (HYG -1.3%). This is either late-stage Scenario 2 or early Scenario 1. The market delusion is becoming untenable.
March 7, 2026
Day 8 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $67,287 | +2.1% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 8, 2026
Day 9 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $65,975 | +0.1% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 9, 2026
Day 10 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $94.77 | +41.4% |
| TTF | $56.455 | +76.6% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,795 | −1.2% |
| NI225 | 52,728 | −10.4% |
| VIX close | 25.51 | +28.5% |
| VIX high | 35.30 | +62.4% |
| VVIX | 122.60 | +10.6% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.17 | −0.7% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.727 | +1.0% |
| USDJPY | 157.668 | +1.0% |
| USDCHF | 0.77729 | +1.1% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.102% | +15.3bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.189% | +7.8bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.840% | +19.6bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.670% | +36.5bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,103 | −2.7% |
| BTC | $68,453 | +3.8% |
Assessment: Energy accelerates - WTI hits +41%, TTF +77%. This is the highest energy has traded since the war began. VIX intraday spike to 35.30 shows genuine panic at some point during the session, even if it closed at 25. Nikkei down 10.4%, worst reading yet. But S&P only down 1.2%. UK gilts at +36.5bps. The divergence persists but is getting more violent. This is either Scenario 2 grinding us down slowly, or Scenario 1 building toward a larger repricing event. Gold still down 2.7%.
March 10, 2026
Day 11 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $83.45 | +24.5% |
| TTF | $47.395 | +48.3% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,781 | −1.4% |
| NI225 | 54,248 | −7.8% |
| VIX close | 24.92 | +25.5% |
| VIX high | 26.01 | +19.6% |
| VVIX | 125.36 | +13.0% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.04 | −0.8% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.915 | +1.2% |
| USDJPY | 158.066 | +1.3% |
| USDCHF | 0.77854 | +1.2% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.156% | +20.7bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.177% | +6.6bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.863% | +21.9bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.542% | +23.7bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,242 | −0.1% |
| BTC | $69,963 | +6.1% |
Assessment: Sharp reversal. Energy pulls back hard - WTI from +41% to +24%, TTF from +77% to +48%. VIX retreats from the 35 spike to 25. UK gilts normalize from +36.5bps to +23.7bps. Nikkei recovers slightly to -7.8%. Gold nearly flat at baseline now. This is either Scenario 3 (War Fades) beginning to play out, or another whipsaw like March 4 before the next leg higher. The key difference: energy is still up 25-50%, not back to baseline. If this is de-escalation, oil should be heading back toward $70-75. Instead it's consolidating at elevated levels. Scenario 2 (Grinding Stagflation) still looks most likely—oil stays high, markets chop, no clean resolution.
March 11, 2026
Day 12 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $87.25 | +30.2% |
| TTF | $49.990 | +56.4% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,775 | −1.5% |
| NI225 | 55,025 | −6.5% |
| VIX close | 24.22 | +22.0% |
| VIX high | 26.23 | +20.7% |
| VVIX | 122.49 | +10.5% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.86 | −1.1% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.252 | +1.6% |
| USDJPY | 158.960 | +1.9% |
| USDCHF | 0.78060 | +1.5% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.228% | +27.9bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.171% | +6.0bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.946% | +30.2bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.684% | +37.9bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,179 | −1.3% |
| BTC | $70,196 | +6.5% |
Assessment: Energy moves back up - WTI to +30%, TTF to +56%. Bonds continue selling off with US 10Y at +27.9bps, UK gilts at +37.9bps. Credit weakening further (HYG -1.1%). S&P drifting lower to -1.5%. This is textbook Scenario 2 (Grinding Stagflation): oil stays elevated in the $85-95 range, equities grind lower slowly, bonds sell off as inflation expectations rise, VIX stuck at 24-26. No dramatic repricing event, no clean resolution. Just persistent stress. The Fed is paralyzed - they can't ease with oil at $87 and 10Y yields rising, but they can't tighten with equities weak and credit breaking.
March 12, 2026
Day 13 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $95.73 | +42.8% |
| TTF | $50.87 | +59.1% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,672 | −3.0% |
| NI225 | 54,452 | −7.5% |
| VIX close | 27.28 | +37.4% |
| VIX high | 27.33 | +25.7% |
| VVIX | 130.18 | +17.4% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.35 | −1.7% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.743 | +2.1% |
| USDJPY | 159.35 | +2.1% |
| USDCHF | 0.78610 | +2.2% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.261% | +31.2bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.184% | +7.3bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.944% | +30.0bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.786% | +48.1bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,125 | −2.3% |
| BTC | $70,529 | +7.0% |
Assessment: The repricing accelerates. WTI +42.8%, S&P breaks -3%, credit at worst level (HYG -1.7%), UK gilts +48.1bps.
March 13, 2026
Day 14 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $98.71 | +47.3% |
| TTF | $50.87 | +59.1% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,632 | −3.6% |
| NI225 | 53,819 | −8.5% |
| VIX close | 27.18 | +36.9% |
| VIX high | 28.47 | +31.0% |
| VVIX | 131.05 | +18.2% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.20 | −1.9% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 100.494 | +2.8% |
| USDJPY | 159.733 | +2.3% |
| USDCHF | 0.79136 | +2.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.283% | +33.4bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.248% | +13.7bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.987% | +34.3bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.836% | +53.1bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,061 | −3.5% |
| BTC | $70,949 | +7.6% |
Assessment: WTI nearly touches $100 (+47.3%). S&P accelerates down to -3.6%. DXY breaks above 100. UK gilts at +53.1bps - serious stress. Scenario 1 (Full Crisis Repricing) is playing out. Gold continues collapsing to -3.5% while BTC rallies to +7.6%.
March 14, 2026
Day 15 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $71,218 | +7.9% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 15, 2026
Day 16 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $72,831 | +10.5% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 16, 2026
Day 17 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $93.50 | +39.5% |
| TTF | $50.885 | +59.2% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,699 | −2.6% |
| NI225 | 53,751 | −8.7% |
| VIX close | 23.52 | +18.5% |
| VIX high | 26.42 | +21.5% |
| VVIX | 116.78 | +5.3% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.45 | −1.6% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.822 | +2.1% |
| USDJPY | 159.046 | +1.9% |
| USDCHF | 0.78768 | +2.4% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.220% | +27.1bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.278% | +16.7bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.932% | +28.8bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.765% | +46.0bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,002 | −4.7% |
| BTC | $74,876 | +13.6% |
Assessment: Relief rally. WTI pulls back from $98.71 to $93.50, S&P recovers from -3.6% to -2.6%, VIX drops from 27 to 23.52. Bonds stabilize, UK gilts back to +46bps. This could be Scenario 3 (War Fades) or just consolidation before the next leg. Gold hits -4.7%, worst reading of the entire war. BTC rallies to +13.6%.
March 17, 2026
Day 18 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $96.21 | +43.5% |
| TTF | $51.56 | +61.3% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,716 | −2.4% |
| NI225 | 53,700 | −8.7% |
| VIX close | 22.36 | +12.6% |
| VIX high | 24.58 | +13.1% |
| VVIX | 110.55 | −0.3% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.81 | −1.1% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.562 | +1.9% |
| USDJPY | 159.000 | +1.9% |
| USDCHF | 0.7478 | −2.8% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.200% | +25.1bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.263% | +15.2bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.913% | +26.9bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.699% | +39.4bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $5,008 | −4.6% |
| BTC | $73,928 | +12.1% |
Assessment: Energy surges again—WTI back to +43.5%, TTF +61.3%. VIX continues fading to 22.36. The relief rally is fading as oil reasserts itself. Still oscillating between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
March 18, 2026
Day 19 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $95.46 | +42.4% |
| TTF | $54.66 | +71.0% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,624 | −3.7% |
| NI225 | 55,239 | −6.1% |
| VIX close | 25.08 | +26.3% |
| VIX high | 25.13 | +15.6% |
| VVIX | 126.50 | +14.1% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.40 | −1.6% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 100.233 | +2.6% |
| USDJPY | 159.868 | +2.4% |
| USDCHF | 0.79322 | +3.1% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.265% | +31.6bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.210% | +9.9bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.960% | +31.6bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.737% | +43.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,896 | −6.7% |
| BTC | $71,259 | +8.1% |
Assessment: Fed holds rates with no cut despite S&P at -3.7% and oil at +42%. Paralyzed exactly as Scenario 2 predicted - can't ease with oil at $95 and inflation expectations rising, can't tighten with equities breaking down. TTF surges to +71%, highest level yet. Gold collapses to -6.7%, worst reading of the entire war. The safe haven is down 7% during a major geopolitical crisis while BTC holds +8%.
March 19, 2026
Day 20 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $95.55 | +42.5% |
| TTF | $61.85 | +93.5% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,606 | −4.0% |
| NI225 | 53,372 | −9.3% |
| VIX close | 24.05 | +21.2% |
| VIX high | 27.52 | +26.6% |
| VVIX | 118.00 | +6.4% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.66 | −1.3% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.162 | +1.5% |
| USDJPY | 157.709 | +1.1% |
| USDCHF | 0.78808 | +2.5% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.249% | +30.0bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.283% | +17.2bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.941% | +29.7bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.866% | +56.1bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,605 | −12.2% |
| BTC | $69,921 | +6.1% |
Assessment: TTF explodes to +93.5%, nearly doubling from baseline. S&P breaks -4%. UK gilts at +56.1bps, well into stress territory. Gold collapses to -12.2%, the worst reading of the entire war. Three weeks in and gold is down 12% during a major war while BTC holds +6%. This completely breaks every safe haven narrative.
March 20, 2026
Day 21 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $98.23 | +46.6% |
| TTF | $59.255 | +85.4% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,506 | −5.4% |
| NI225 | 53,372 | −9.3% |
| VIX close | 26.77 | +34.9% |
| VIX high | 29.28 | +34.7% |
| VVIX | 126.28 | +13.9% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 78.92 | −2.2% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.503 | +1.8% |
| USDJPY | 159.228 | +2.0% |
| USDCHF | 0.78800 | +2.5% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.384% | +43.5bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.264% | +15.3bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.048% | +40.4bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.997% | +69.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,574 | −12.8% |
| BTC | $70,502 | +6.9% |
Assessment: S&P breaks -5.4%, the worst equity reading of the war. WTI approaching $100 at +46.6%. UK gilts nearly at +70bps. Credit at worst level (HYG -2.2%). VIX intraday touched 29.28. Scenario 1 (Full Crisis Repricing) is accelerating.
March 21, 2026
Day 22 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $68,910 | +4.5% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 22, 2026
Day 23 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $67,860 | +2.9% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 23, 2026
Day 24 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $88.13 | +31.5% |
| TTF | $56.68 | +77.4% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,580 | −4.3% |
| NI225 | 51,515 | −12.5% |
| VIX close | 26.16 | +31.8% |
| VIX high | 31.04 | +42.8% |
| VVIX | 126.28 | +13.9% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.44 | −1.6% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.146 | +1.5% |
| USDJPY | 158.429 | +1.5% |
| USDCHF | 0.78641 | +2.3% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.350% | +40.1bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.290% | +17.9bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.987% | +34.3bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.896% | +59.1bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,407 | −16.0% |
| BTC | $70,883 | +7.5% |
Assessment: WTI pulls back from $98 to $88, but TTF still elevated at +77%. VIX intraday spiked to 31.04, highest level yet. Nikkei breaks -12.5%, worst reading of the war. UK gilts at +59.1bps remain in stress territory. Gold collapses to -16.0%, the worst level ever recorded during this crisis.
March 24, 2026
Day 25 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $92.35 | +37.8% |
| TTF | $54.04 | +69.0% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,556 | −4.7% |
| NI225 | 52,252 | −11.2% |
| VIX close | 26.94 | +35.7% |
| VIX high | 27.92 | +28.4% |
| VVIX | 124.14 | +11.9% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.19 | −1.9% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.182 | +1.5% |
| USDJPY | 158.705 | +1.7% |
| USDCHF | 0.78822 | +2.5% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.368% | +41.9bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.262% | +15.1bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.998% | +35.4bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.981% | +67.6bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,402 | −16.1% |
| BTC | $70,519 | +7.0% |
Assessment: Nearly a month in. WTI surges back to +37.8% after yesterday's pullback. S&P continues grinding lower to -4.7%. UK gilts at +67.6bps, approaching the worst levels seen during this crisis. Nikkei at -11.2%. Gold at -16.1%, continuing to deteriorate. Scenario 2 (Grinding Stagflation) fully entrenched - oil elevated, equities drifting lower, no clean resolution.
March 25, 2026
Day 26 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $90.32 | +34.8% |
| TTF | $52.815 | +65.2% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,591 | −4.2% |
| NI225 | 53,749 | −8.7% |
| VIX close | 25.32 | +27.6% |
| VIX high | 26.67 | +22.7% |
| VVIX | 119.37 | +7.6% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.42 | −1.6% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.637 | +2.0% |
| USDJPY | 159.474 | +2.2% |
| USDCHF | 0.79156 | +2.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.332% | +38.3bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.241% | +13.0bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.969% | +32.5bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.864% | +55.9bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,552 | −13.2% |
| BTC | $71,301 | +8.1% |
Assessment: Brief relief. WTI pulls back to +34.8%, S&P recovers slightly to -4.2%, VIX fades to 25.32. Gold bounces from -16% to -13.2%. This feels like consolidation rather than resolution. Energy still elevated, equities still weak, no structural change.
March 26, 2026
Day 27 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $94.48 | +41.0% |
| TTF | $55.535 | +73.8% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,477 | −5.8% |
| NI225 | 53,603 | −8.9% |
| VIX close | 27.43 | +38.2% |
| VIX high | 28.49 | +31.1% |
| VVIX | 124.43 | +12.2% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 78.92 | −2.2% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.864 | +2.2% |
| USDJPY | 159.777 | +2.4% |
| USDCHF | 0.79516 | +3.4% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.412% | +46.3bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.275% | +16.4bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.079% | +43.5bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.989% | +68.4bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,376 | −16.6% |
| BTC | $68,779 | +4.3% |
Assessment: The relief was short-lived. WTI surges back to +41.0%, S&P breaks new lows at -5.8%, worst equity reading yet. Credit at worst level (HYG -2.2%). US 10Y at +46.3bps, UK gilts at +68.4bps. Gold collapses back to -16.6%. Four weeks in and Scenario 2 is grinding everyone down. No catalyst for resolution. The constraints keep building but haven't reached the breaking point yet.
March 27, 2026
Day 28 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $99.64 | +48.7% |
| TTF | $54.525 | +70.6% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,368 | −7.4% |
| NI225 | 53,373 | −9.3% |
| VIX close | 31.04 | +56.3% |
| VIX high | 31.65 | +45.6% |
| VVIX | 133.18 | +20.1% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 78.72 | −2.5% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 100.193 | +2.5% |
| USDJPY | 160.315 | +2.7% |
| USDCHF | 0.79891 | +3.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.428% | +47.9bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.379% | +26.8bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.109% | +46.5bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.981% | +67.6bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,492 | −14.4% |
| BTC | $66,435 | +0.8% |
Assessment: WTI approaches but doesn't break $100 (+48.7%). S&P accelerates down to -7.4%, worst level yet. VIX closes above 31 for the first time - the highest close since the war began. VVIX at 133 (+20%). Credit at worst level (HYG -2.5%). The four-week grind may be ending. Gold bounced slightly to -14.4%. BTC reversed sharply to near flat. The repricing is accelerating but not yet violent.
March 28, 2026
Day 29 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $66,321 | +0.6% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 29, 2026
Day 30 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $65,954 | +0.04% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
March 30, 2026
Day 31 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $102.88 | +53.5% |
| TTF | $55.055 | +72.2% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,343 | −7.8% |
| NI225 | 51,885 | −11.8% |
| VIX close | 30.62 | +54.3% |
| VIX high | 31.52 | +45.0% |
| VVIX | 127.84 | +15.3% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 78.81 | −2.4% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 100.491 | +2.8% |
| USDJPY | 159.742 | +2.4% |
| USDCHF | 0.79954 | +4.0% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.350% | +40.1bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.360% | +24.9bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.047% | +40.3bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.928% | +62.3bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,557 | −13.2% |
| BTC | $66,731 | +1.2% |
Assessment: WTI breaks above $100, closing at $102.88 (+53.5%) - the highest sustained level of the war. S&P continues grinding lower to -7.8%. Nikkei at -11.8%, worst level yet. VIX elevated at 30.62 but pulled back from Friday's 31+ close. UK gilts at +62.3bps, still in severe stress territory. Gold bounced slightly to -13.2%. One month in, energy acceleration continues while equities slowly reprice.
March 31, 2026
Day 32 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $101.38 | +51.3% |
| TTF | $50.755 | +58.8% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,528 | −5.1% |
| NI225 | 51,063 | −13.2% |
| VIX close | 25.24 | +27.2% |
| VIX high | 29.64 | +36.3% |
| VVIX | 116.05 | +4.7% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.56 | −1.4% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.856 | +2.2% |
| USDJPY | 158.724 | +1.7% |
| USDCHF | 0.79945 | +3.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.319% | +37.0bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.351% | +24.0bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.981% | +33.7bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.877% | +57.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,678 | −10.8% |
| BTC | $68,215 | +3.5% |
Assessment: Relief rally on ceasefire talk headlines. Trump announces negotiations beginning. S&P surges +2.8% in one day (from -7.8% to -5.1%). VIX collapses from 30.62 to 25.24. WTI holds above $100 but pulled back slightly. TTF down sharply to +58.8%. Gold rallies from -13.2% to -10.8%. Critical question: Are these serious negotiations or just headlines? Markets pricing hope.
April 1, 2026
Day 33 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $100.12 | +49.4% |
| TTF | $47.510 | +48.6% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,575 | −4.4% |
| NI225 | 53,739 | −8.7% |
| VIX close | 24.53 | +23.6% |
| VIX high | 25.35 | +16.6% |
| VVIX | 114.83 | +3.6% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.37 | −1.7% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.552 | +1.9% |
| USDJPY | 158.790 | +1.7% |
| USDCHF | 0.79428 | +3.3% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.321% | +37.2bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.313% | +20.2bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.987% | +34.3bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.828% | +52.3bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,813 | −8.3% |
| BTC | $68,102 | +3.3% |
Assessment: Day two of the relief rally. S&P up another 0.7% to -4.4% (recovering from -7.8% low). VIX continues falling to 24.53. TTF down sharply to +48.6% (from +58.8% yesterday, +72% at peak). WTI holding just above $100. Gold rallying strongly from -10.8% to -8.3%, biggest two-day move of the war.
April 2, 2026
Day 34 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $111.54 | +66.4% |
| TTF | $50.045 | +56.5% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,582 | −4.3% |
| NI225 | 52,463 | −10.9% |
| VIX close | 23.87 | +20.2% |
| VIX high | 27.89 | +28.3% |
| VVIX | 115.33 | +4.0% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.56 | −1.4% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 100.017 | +2.3% |
| USDJPY | 159.606 | +2.3% |
| USDCHF | 0.79882 | +3.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.309% | +36.0bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.386% | +27.5bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.996% | +35.2bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.851% | +54.6bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,679 | −10.8% |
| BTC | $66,890 | +1.5% |
Assessment: The ceasefire hope rally just died. WTI spikes +11.4% in one day to $111.54 (+66.4% from baseline) - the highest level of the entire war. Physical oil markets calling BS on the diplomatic narrative. Yet S&P barely moved (+0.1%) and VIX actually fell to 23.87. This is the divergence reaching absurd levels: oil at all-time war highs while equities price in mild disruption. Gold sold off again to -10.8%. The two-day relief rally (March 31-April 1) proved to be exactly what skeptics expected - hope without substance. Physical markets know the Strait is still closed. Paper markets are in denial. This sets up exactly what I described in "You Shall Not Pass": oil acceleration while equities lag, then violent convergence.
April 3, 2026
Day 35 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $66,944 | +1.5% |
Assessment: Incomplete data.
April 4, 2026
Day 36 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $67,290 | +2.1% |
Assessment: Incomplete data.
April 5, 2026
Day 37 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | — | — |
| TTF | — | — |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | — | — |
| NI225 | — | — |
| VIX close | — | — |
| VIX high | — | — |
| VVIX | — | — |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | — | — |
| FX | ||
| DXY | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| USDCHF | — | — |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | — | — |
| JP 10Y | — | — |
| DE 10Y | — | — |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | — | — |
| BTC | $68,999 | +4.7% |
Assessment: Incomplete data. Weekend.
April 6, 2026
Day 38 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $112.41 | +67.7% |
| TTF | $50.045 | +56.5% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,611 | −3.9% |
| NI225 | 53,413 | −9.2% |
| VIX close | 24.16 | +21.7% |
| VIX high | 25.30 | +16.4% |
| VVIX | 113.53 | +2.4% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.70 | −1.3% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.989 | +2.3% |
| USDJPY | 159.686 | +2.3% |
| USDCHF | 0.79808 | +3.8% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.339% | +39.0bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.423% | +31.2bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.996% | +35.2bps |
| GB 10Y | — | — |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,684 | −10.7% |
| BTC | $68,857 | +4.5% |
Assessment: Week two of April begins. WTI pushes to new war high at $112.41 (+67.7%), surpassing the April 2 spike of $111.54. The ceasefire hope rally from March 31-April 1 is fully reversed. S&P at -3.9%, holding near the lows despite three-day weekend break. VIX stable at 24.16, showing resignation rather than panic. Gold still weak at -10.7%, BTC up +4.5%. Five weeks in, oil continues accelerating while equities reprice slowly.
April 7, 2026
Day 39 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $112.95 | +68.5% |
| TTF | $53.245 | +66.5% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,616 | −3.8% |
| NI225 | 53,429 | −9.2% |
| VIX close | 25.77 | +29.8% |
| VIX high | 28.00 | +28.8% |
| VVIX | 117.30 | +5.8% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.72 | −1.2% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 99.516 | +1.8% |
| USDJPY | 159.610 | +2.3% |
| USDCHF | 0.79770 | +3.7% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.301% | +35.2bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.390% | +27.9bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.062% | +41.8bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.901% | +59.6bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,684 | −10.7% |
| BTC | $71,940 | +9.2% |
Assessment: WTI hits yet another new high at $112.95 (+68.5%). TTF surges back to $53.245 (+66.5%), approaching the March peaks. Energy acceleration continues unabated. S&P essentially flat at -3.8%, showing neither panic nor resolution. VIX climbed to 25.77.
April 8, 2026
Day 39 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $94.41 | +40.9% |
| TTF | $45.300 | +41.7% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,782 | −1.4% |
| NI225 | 56,308 | −4.3% |
| VIX close | 21.05 | +6.0% |
| VIX high | 22.17 | +2.0% |
| VVIX | 111.07 | +0.2% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.19 | −0.6% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.998 | +1.3% |
| USDJPY | 158.569 | +1.6% |
| USDCHF | 0.79132 | +2.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.295% | +34.6bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.369% | +25.8bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.948% | +30.4bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.711% | +40.6bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,777 | −9.0% |
| BTC | $71,110 | +7.9% |
Assessment: The ceasefire hope rally in full effect. WTI down to $94 (-16% from $112 war peak, but still +41% from baseline). S&P surged +2.7% in one day to 6,782, almost back to pre-war levels (-1.4% from baseline). VIX collapsed from 25.77 to 21.05, approaching normal levels. Nikkei rallied hard +5.4% to 56,308. TTF down sharply to +41.7%. Markets pricing peace.
April 9, 2026
Day 40 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $97.87 | +46.0% |
| TTF | $46.175 | +44.4% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,824 | −0.8% |
| NI225 | 55,895 | −5.0% |
| VIX close | 19.48 | −1.9% |
| VIX high | 21.63 | −0.5% |
| VVIX | 105.37 | −5.0% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.28 | −0.5% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.795 | +1.1% |
| USDJPY | 158.998 | +1.9% |
| USDCHF | 0.79049 | +2.8% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.283% | +33.4bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.379% | +26.8bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.006% | +36.2bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.757% | +45.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,818 | −8.2% |
| BTC | $71,812 | +9.0% |
Assessment: Hope rally continues. S&P up another +0.6% to 6,824, now essentially flat from pre-war baseline (-0.8%). VIX collapses to 19.48, below baseline for the first time since the war began—markets pricing "crisis over." WTI bounces slightly to $97.87 but still down massively from $113 peak. The divergence is complete: equities say war is over, oil still up 46% says it's not. This is day 3 of the ceasefire announcement.
April 10, 2026
Day 41 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $96.57 | +44.1% |
| TTF | $43.640 | +36.5% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,816 | −0.9% |
| NI225 | 56,924 | −3.2% |
| VIX close | 19.22 | −3.2% |
| VIX high | 20.28 | −6.7% |
| VVIX | 107.30 | −3.2% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 79.96 | −0.9% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.697 | +1.0% |
| USDJPY | 159.275 | +2.0% |
| USDCHF | 0.78916 | +2.6% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.317% | +36.8bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.447% | +33.6bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.054% | +41.0bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.835% | +43.0bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,787 | −8.8% |
| BTC | $72,980 | +10.7% |
Assessment: VIX at 19.22 is now below pre-war baseline (19.85). Markets pricing the war as if it never happened. S&P essentially flat (-0.9%). Yet WTI still up 44% and TTF up 36%—the physical reality hasn't changed. This is the ultimate divergence: equity markets say "crisis over," energy markets say "crisis continues."
April 11, 2026
Day 42 of war
[Data incomplete - markets closed]
Available data: BTCUSD - $73,071 (+10.9% from baseline)
April 12, 2026
Day 43 of war
[Data incomplete - markets closed]
Available data: BTCUSD - $70,746 (+7.4% from baseline)
April 13, 2026
Day 44 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $99.08 | +47.8% |
| TTF | $46.415 | +45.2% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,886 | +0.1% |
| NI225 | 56,502 | −4.0% |
| VIX close | 19.11 | −3.7% |
| VIX high | 21.58 | −0.7% |
| VVIX | 102.63 | −7.5% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.26 | −0.5% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.373 | +0.7% |
| USDJPY | 159.445 | +2.2% |
| USDCHF | 0.78383 | +1.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.293% | +34.4bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.473% | +36.2bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.068% | +42.4bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.845% | +54.0bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,767 | −9.1% |
| BTC | $74,447 | +13.0% |
Assessment: Oil rebounds to $99 (+47.8%). SPX essentially flat at baseline (+0.1%). VIX drops below baseline at 19.11 (-3.7%). Markets continuing to normalize while WTI still pricing significant disruption.
April 14, 2026
Day 45 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $91.28 | +36.2% |
| TTF | $43.365 | +35.6% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 6,967 | +1.3% |
| NI225 | 57,877 | −1.6% |
| VIX close | 18.37 | −7.5% |
| VIX high | 18.76 | −13.7% |
| VVIX | 95.40 | −14.0% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.50 | −0.2% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.105 | +0.4% |
| USDJPY | 158.802 | +1.8% |
| USDCHF | 0.78092 | +1.5% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.248% | +29.9bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.416% | +30.5bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.034% | +39.0bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.774% | +46.9bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,850 | −7.6% |
| BTC | $74,148 | +12.5% |
Assessment: Major divergence accelerating. WTI drops sharply to $91 (-8% in one day), converging toward futures pricing. SPX surges to 6,967 (+1.3% above baseline). VIX collapses to 18.37 (-7.5% from baseline). Markets now pricing complete normalization: SPX above pre-war, VIX below pre-war. Yet WTI still +36% suggests physical oil crisis continues.
April 15, 2026
Day 46 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $91.29 | +36.2% |
| TTF | $41.400 | +29.5% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 7,022 | +2.1% |
| NI225 | 58,134 | −1.2% |
| VIX close | 18.18 | −8.4% |
| VIX high | 18.50 | −14.9% |
| VVIX | 97.65 | −12.0% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.46 | −0.3% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.050 | +0.3% |
| USDJPY | 158.969 | +1.9% |
| USDCHF | 0.78195 | +1.7% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.281% | +33.2bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.409% | +29.8bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.039% | +39.5bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.820% | +51.5bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,823 | −8.1% |
| BTC | $74,818 | +13.5% |
Assessment: The impossible divergence reaches peak: SPX now at 7,022 (+2.1% above pre-war baseline), VIX at 18.18 (-8.4%), yet WTI still at $91 (+36%). Markets have completely normalized as if war never happened, while oil prices say crisis continues. SPX has rallied 679 points (+10.7%) from March 30 war low to new all-time highs. VIX trading below pre-war levels.
April 16, 2026
Day 47 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $94.69 | +41.2% |
| TTF | $42.420 | +32.7% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 7,041 | +2.4% |
| NI225 | 59,518 | +1.2% |
| VIX close | 17.95 | −9.6% |
| VIX high | 19.09 | −12.2% |
| VVIX | 96.80 | −12.7% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.35 | −0.4% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.179 | +0.5% |
| USDJPY | 159.145 | +2.0% |
| USDCHF | 0.78354 | +1.9% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.315% | +36.6bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.408% | +29.7bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.051% | +40.7bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.877% | +57.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,808 | −8.4% |
| BTC | $75,178 | +14.1% |
Assessment: SPX hits new all-time high at 7,041 (+2.4% above pre-war baseline), now 698 points (+11.0%) above March 30 war low. VIX collapses to 17.95 (-9.6% from baseline), lowest level since war began. Markets pricing war as completely resolved. Yet WTI bounces back to $94.69 (+41.2%), refusing to fully normalize.
April 17, 2026
Day 48 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $82.59 | +23.2% |
| TTF | $38.770 | +21.3% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 7,126 | +3.6% |
| NI225 | 58,475 | −0.6% |
| VIX close | 17.47 | −12.0% |
| VIX high | 18.24 | −16.1% |
| VVIX | 95.13 | −14.2% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.65 | +0.0% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.226 | +0.5% |
| USDJPY | 158.616 | +1.7% |
| USDCHF | 0.78178 | +1.6% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.248% | +29.9bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.416% | +30.5bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.966% | +32.2bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.767% | +46.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,879 | −7.1% |
| BTC | $77,108 | +17.0% |
Assessment: MAJOR INFLECTION. WTI collapses $12.10 in one day (-12.8%), now at $82.59 (+23.2% from baseline). This is the largest single-day oil drop since the ceasefire announcement and breaks below the $91-96 range that had held for 10 days. Simultaneously, SPX surges to new all-time high at 7,126 (+3.6% above baseline), up 783 points (+12.3%) from March 30 war low. VIX at 17.47 (-12.0%), lowest level of entire war.
April 18, 2026
Day 49 of war
[Data incomplete - markets closed]
Available data: BTCUSD - $75,737 (+14.9% from baseline)
April 19, 2026
Day 50 of war
[Data incomplete - markets closed]
Available data: BTCUSD - $73,825 (+12.0% from baseline)
April 20, 2026
Day 51 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $85.30 | +27.2% |
| TTF | $40.290 | +26.0% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 7,109 | +3.4% |
| NI225 | 58,824 | 0.0% |
| VIX close | 18.86 | −5.0% |
| VIX high | 19.99 | −8.1% |
| VVIX | 98.15 | −11.5% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.58 | −0.1% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.053 | +0.4% |
| USDJPY | 158.806 | +1.8% |
| USDCHF | 0.77804 | +1.2% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.259% | +31.0bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.391% | +28.0bps |
| DE 10Y | 2.978% | +33.4bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.836% | +53.1bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,828 | −8.0% |
| BTC | $75,870 | +15.1% |
Assessment: Eve of April 21 inflection. WTI bounces to $85.30 (+27.2%) after three-day selloff, refusing to fully normalize. SPX continues relentless march to 7,109 (+3.4%), now 766 points (+12.1%) above March 30 war low. VIX at 18.86 (-5.0%), comfortably below baseline. Nikkei exactly at baseline (0.0%).
April 21, 2026
Day 52 of war — Ceasefire Expiry
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $89.67 | +33.7% |
| TTF | $41.93 | +31.1% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 7,064 | +2.7% |
| NI225 | 59,348 | +1.0% |
| VIX close | 19.49 | −1.8% |
| VIX high | 20.85 | −4.1% |
| VVIX | 101.89 | −8.1% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.37 | −0.3% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.407 | +0.7% |
| USDJPY | 159.323 | +2.1% |
| USDCHF | 0.78037 | +1.5% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.299% | +35.0bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.390% | +27.9bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.022% | +37.8bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.892% | +58.7bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,719 | −10.1% |
| BTC | $76,345 | +15.9% |
Assessment: WTI bounces back to $89.67 (+33.7%) after briefly touching $82, while SPX pulls back slightly to $7,064 (+2.7%). VIX at 19.49, essentially at baseline.
April 22, 2026
Day 53 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $92.96 | +38.7% |
| TTF | $43.550 | +36.2% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 7,137 | +3.8% |
| NI225 | 59,585 | +1.3% |
| VIX close | 18.91 | −4.7% |
| VIX high | 19.54 | −10.2% |
| VVIX | 98.73 | −11.0% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.50 | −0.2% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.606 | +0.9% |
| USDJPY | 159.476 | +2.2% |
| USDCHF | 0.78476 | +2.0% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.305% | +35.6bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.401% | +29.0bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.02% | +37.6bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.918% | +61.3bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,753 | −9.4% |
| BTC | $78,208 | +18.7% |
Assessment: WTI surges to $92.96 (+3.29 in one day, +38.7% from baseline). SPX powers to new all-time high at 7,137 (+3.8% above baseline), now 794 points (+12.5%) above March 30 war low. VIX drops further to 18.91 (-4.7% from baseline).
April 23, 2026
Day 54 of war
| Ticker | Level | Δ% from baseline |
|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||
| WTI | $95.85 | +42.9% |
| TTF | $44.495 | +39.2% |
| EQUITIES | ||
| SPX | 7,108 | +3.4% |
| NI225 | 59,140 | +0.5% |
| VIX close | 19.30 | −2.8% |
| VIX high | 21.56 | −0.8% |
| VVIX | 98.57 | −11.1% |
| CREDIT | ||
| HYG | 80.37 | −0.3% |
| FX | ||
| DXY | 98.798 | +1.2% |
| USDJPY | 159.749 | +2.4% |
| USDCHF | 0.78653 | +2.3% |
| BONDS | ||
| US 10Y | 4.235% | +28.6bps |
| JP 10Y | 2.426% | +31.5bps |
| DE 10Y | 3.031% | +38.7bps |
| GB 10Y | 4.937% | +63.2bps |
| OTHER | ||
| Gold | $4,724 | −10.0% |
| BTC | $78,269 | +18.8% |
Assessment: Oil momentum continues, equities pause. WTI surges to $95.85 (+42.9%), now highest level since April 15 pre-collapse and approaching the $96-97 range that held before the April 17 selloff. SPX pulls back modestly to 7,108 (+3.4%), giving up yesterday's gains but remaining well above baseline. VIX ticks up to 19.30 (-2.8%), showing slight nervousness but still below pre-war levels.